The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the fourth quarter as businesses drew down inventories at a much slower pace and boosted investment, a government report showed on Friday. As the recession eases Boise real estate will be helped out by the positive news.
It was estimated that Gross Domestic Product would increase at a clip of 5.7%, instead it grew at a rate of 5.9% according to the Commerce Department, based on fourth quarter financial numbers. This is the fastest pace the GDP has grown since the middle of the year in 2003. The fastest quarter was the third quarter which posted a robust 2.2% growth rate. The Boise real estate market will see some benefit from these increases, plus other local market factors.
Major news agencies had indicated that the latter portion of 2009 posted a projected growth of 5.7%, including a total of all products and services inside United States borders. Not since the Great Depression of the 1930’s has the country seen this bad of a downturn, and it seemed like we were emerging in 2009 with the latter half of that year posting impressive numbers, but that has tailed off quite a bit in the initial months of 2010. A sharp brake in the pace at which businesses liquidated inventories combined with increased spending on equipment and software to boost growth in the fourth quarter, offsetting lackluster consumer spending and residential investment. This wan’t just a national trend either, as the Boise real estate market saw very similar changes in volume as well.
Stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 1.9%, rather than the 2.2% pace estimated last month, indicating growth was not being driven by demand. Inventory values were adjusted down from $33.5 billion initially, to $16.9 in the fourth quarter. Throughout the latter portion of the summer, inventory sales plummeted to $139 billion. The inventory changes alone were responsible for a 3.88% difference in GDP. Such a dramatic increase has not been seen since the final quarter of 1987. With so many suppliers eliminating excess inventory, builders in the Boise real estate market were helped out.
For the whole of 2009, the economy contracted 2.4%, the biggest decline since 1946, the department said. Even consumer spending projections had to be adjusted downward from 2% in January to the actual number of 1.7% increase. In the preceding quarter, the federal government “cash for clunkers” program lifted GDP by 2.8%, which was obviously a short term fix for a sector of the economy. The disappointing news came from the consumer spending sector which added only a 1.23% GDP gain, which is low considering it is normally about 70% of GDP. As the national economy contracted, the Boise real estate market contracted right along with it.
Businesses continued to invest in equipment and necessary software at such a rate that the commercial real estate slump was not a cause of negative number in the Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter. Increases in business investment, from a projected 2.9% to a 6.5% actual pace helped out a lot. In the preceding three months, it had slid by about 5.9%. With an anticipated increase of 5.7% for the fourth quarter, the construction numbers were a bit of a disappointment when they came in at 5%. Posting an increase of just under 19% in the third quarter, there was quite a disparity between quarters. On the back of stronger exports and imports, which left a trade gap adding .3% to the GDP, the fourth quarter boasted better numbers than otherwise anticipated. With factors that effect Boise real estate and GDP, we are all eager to see a resolution to this crisis.
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